Evaluating Future Threats of Climate Change on Riverine and Coastal Chars

Shampa, Anisul Haque, M. Ashiqur Rahman, Delowar Hossain, A. Alauddin Azad & Samsunnahar Mita 

Published in ‘Living on the Edge - Char Dwellers in Bangladesh’

Abstract

Climate-induced hazard is a global problem, which may disproportionately affect those living in riverine and coastal chars in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta of Bangladesh, where people’s lives and livelihoods are largely dependent on nearby water bodies. By way of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation, effect of climate change has been assessed for riverine and coastal chars in terms of flood disasters. Based on a medium–high carbon emission scenario A1B, which corresponds to the rise of temperature by 2.7° (mid-century) and by 4.85° (end-century) from the present day, with the associated sea-level rise, a total of 14 scenarios has been generated and investigated in fluvial, fluvio-tidal, and storm surge flooding conditions. This study indicates that despite having morphological characteristics similar to the ones in the general area, chars are likely to face different hazard conditions resulting from climatic variables. Significant changes in flood hazards are visualized within the end-century time horizon for both riverine and coastal chars. Coastal polders are likely to play a strategic role in reducing the impacts of climate change-induced hazards